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Chicago Bears (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Chicago's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #29 in the league with a mere 315 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #2-worst in football with 193 yards per game. Their running backs have been particularly ineffective, being held to a paltry 23 yards per game (#2-worst in the league). This represents a particular disadvantage for Chicago given that the Packers have excelled in stopping the pass this year, allowing just 7.07 yards per target (#4-best in the league).
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In terms of their defense, the Bears have ranked #13 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 229 yards per game through the air against them (#7 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #28 with 4.75 yards per carry. Chicago has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 33 yards per game (#2-best). Chicago has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 9.31 yards per target (#5-worst).
Green Bay's chief advantage has been their pass offense, which ranks #10 in the NFL at 260 yards per game through the air. Their tight ends have played a big part in their offensive efficiency, completing 76.7% of the passes they've been targeted on (ranking #4).
When it comes to their defense, the Packers check in at #7 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 235 yards per game against Green Bay this year (#10 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 against them with 4.56 yards per ground attempt. This Packers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 57.4% of their passes (#1-lowest in the league). Green Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have completed 78.4% of their passes (#5-highest in the league).
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The Packers are undefeated at home after winning 5 straight home games, and this game will be played in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field. This stadium has a capacity of 81441 fans and is the #3 largest stadium in the NFL. The large crowd can make it extremely loud for opposing teams, which makes Green Bay one of the more difficult road environments in the NFL. This is likely one of the reasons why the Packers have done well at home this year. The Packers are coming off a bye and will have had 14 days rest, which is longer then normal. The extra time should help the Packers get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. This game features one of the oldest and most-storied rivalries. Neither franchise likes the other, so both teams are likely to be extra motivated for this game. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 6 in 2021. That game resulted in a home win for the Packers with a final score of 41-25. This will be a back-to-back road game for the Bears. The extra travel won't help the Bears, and this could slightly upgrade the Packers home field advantage.
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There has been some line movement on the Game Total toward the Under. It opened 45.5 before it was bet down to 43.0. The betting handle for this Game Total is notable, because there is reverse line movement. The Over is receiving the majority of the betting handle, however the Game Total has shifted down 2.5 points. Approximately 64% of the bets and 60% of the Cash has been wagered on the Over. This may indicate some smart money was wagered on the Under as Sportsbooks often move lines based on sharp action and not raw betting handles.
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PROJECTION:
Green Bay Packers - 25.54
Chicago Bears - 15.48
Win Probability:
GB 80% / CHI 20%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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