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Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)
Week 12's contest between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions pairs one team's greatest strength with the other's weakness. The Bears run game has been one of the best in the league, ranking #8 while averaging 128 yards per game.
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Quarterbacks average nearly 2 extra yards per carry over running backs, and so having a mobile QB can be a huge advantage. Roughly 13.6% of the Bears rush attempts have come through their quarterback, #7-most in the league.
Chicago has leaned on the run 43.3% of the time, #2-most in football. The Bears have leaned heavily on the run in the red zone as they attempt to punch it for touchdowns, #9-most in football at 52.1%. It seems like it would make sense to continue leaning on it this week given how ill-equipped the Lions have been to stop the opposing run threat this year. To wit, the Lions rush defense has allowed 143 yards per game, #3-worst in the league. They've allowed 4.85 yards per carry (#3-worst). This should give Chicago a decided advantage.
If the Lions are going to come out on top, they'll likely need to figure out a way to slow Chicago down on the ground. That's not going to be easy given how much they've struggled in that department this season.
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The Lions have lost 1 consecutive games and remain winless. There may be some desperation for the Lions to record a win. This is a short week for both teams, and each will have to make due with fewer days to rest and prepare for the game. Coaches and players like routine, so the disruption of a short week may lead to a wider range of outcomes and less efficiency on both sides of the ball. These two teams are divisional competitors. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 4 in 2021. That game resulted in a road win for the Bears with a final score of 27-23.
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This matchup has the #2 lowest Game Total this week. Low Totals imply there will be a lack of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lack of offensive yards. The betting handle for this Game Total is noteworthy, because there is lopsided action. The vast majority of the Bets and Cash have been on the Under. Approximately 58% of the bets and 63% of the Cash has been wagered on the Under. It's looking like Sportsbooks will have liability on this Game Total and will be rooting for the Over. Compared to all the other game action this week, the Under has the highest percentage of cash this week.
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PROJECTION:
Chicago Bears - 25.08
Detroit Lions - 23.18
Win Probability:
CHI 54% / DET 46%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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