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Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills - Week 15

 
 
 
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CAR BUF
Carolina Panthers (5-8) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)

Week 15’s contest between the Carolina Panthers and the Buffalo Bills brings two strong defenses to the forefront. Both offenses will have their work cut out for them as they try to march down the field, and it's possible we see fewer points up on the scoreboard than either team is used to.
 
The Bills have held opposing offenses to just 300 yards per game this year, ranking #1-best in the league. They've found success largely through their run defense, which ranks #5-best in football in terms of efficiency; Buffalo has held opposing rushers to just 4.02 yards per carry. The Bills have been so adept at stopping the run in part because of how often they stack the box with 8 or more defenders: 21.0% of the time, or #3-most of any team. This could offer Carolina an opportunity through the air with smart game-planning. Buffalo's most effective run-stopping unit has been their linebackers, which ranks #2 in football in this regard.

The Panthers have allowed just 318 yards per game this year, ranking #2-best in the league. Their biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #13-best in football in terms of efficiency; Carolina has held opposing quarterbacks to just 7.63 yards per target. As a result, opposing offenses have passed for just 202 total yards per game. They have been very effective in stopping running backs, holding them to just 19 yards per game -- good for #1-best in the NFL. This represents an especially favorable matchup, as Bills running backs have ranked just #26 by the same metric. The Panthers are great at getting to the quarterback, as their defensive tackles rank #8-best when it comes to rushing the passer.

It's worth noting that, while Carolina's defense has been stellar, Buffalo's offense has also been great. They rank #4 in the NFL in yards per game with 407. This pitting of strength-vs.-strength should make for an interesting dynamic.
 
 
The Panthers have lost 3 consecutive games, while the Bills have lost 2 in a row.
 
The Game Total has moved a small amount since it opened. It opened 45.0 before it was bet down to 43.0. The betting handle for this Game Total is notable, because there is reverse line movement. The Over is receiving the majority of the betting handle, however the Game Total has shifted down 2.0 points. Approximately 62% of the bets and 72% of the Cash has been wagered on the Over. This may indicate some smart money was wagered on the Under as Sportsbooks often move lines based on sharp action and not raw betting handles.
 
PROJECTION:
Buffalo Bills - 26.03
Carolina Panthers - 15.55

Win Probability:
BUF 82% / CAR 18%
 
 
 
 
 
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