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Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Chicago Bears (4-7)
Chicago's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #30 in football with a low 310 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 187 yards per game. Partially to blame is Chicago's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #23 in the NFL. Running back has been a particular weakness for the Bears; as a group they've mustered just 20 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).
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When it comes to their defense, the Bears check in at #15 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 238 yards per game against Chicago this year (#10 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #26 against them with 4.77 yards per ground attempt. This Bears defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 33 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Chicago's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.37 yards per target (#5-worst in the league).
Arizona's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #3 in the league while allowing just 331 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #4-least yards per game: 218. The Cardinals have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 132 yards per game (#2-best). Arizona's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #8 in the league in locking down route-runners. Arizona's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their linebackers, which check in as the #3-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular advantage for Arizona given that the Bears have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 6.64 yards per target (#10-worst in the league).
In terms of their offense, the Cardinals have ranked #6 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 264 yards per game (#9 in football). On the ground they've ranked #16 with 4.45 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to wide receivers, who have hauled in 76.5% of the balls thrown their way this year (ranking #1).
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The Cardinals have won 6 consecutive road games, while the Bears are 2-3 at home. Trends aren't always predictive, but to continuously win on the road is difficult regardless. If the Cardinals road trend continues there may be a narrative reason why that's worth looking into. Both teams will be aided by additional days rest compared to a typical week. Every extra day helps, and both teams are likely to be healthier and more prepared for the game. This could lead to more efficient play on both sides of the ball. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The road Cardinals won by double digits, smashing the Bears 48-23 in Week 3 of 2018.
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This matchup has the #3 lowest Game Total this week. Low Totals imply there will be a lack of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lack of offensive yards. Sizable line movement toward the Under has shifted the Game Total. It opened 46.5 before it was bet down to 43.0. The betting handle for this Game Total is notable, because there is two sided action. The majority of the Bets have been on the Over, however there is more Cash on the Under. The Over has approximately 68% of the Bets, however the Under has 63% of the Cash. This means there has likely been relatively big wagers on the Under.
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PROJECTION:
Arizona Cardinals - 23.16
Chicago Bears - 17.26
Win Probability:
ARI 70% / CHI 30%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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