Zion Williamson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/16/2026

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Zion Williamson

NBA · Player Props

Zion Williamson

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 16, 2026

Updated Mar 16, 2026 11:48 PM UTC

Analysis

Zion Williamson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Zion Williamson has logged 25.3 points per game over the last 12 games with the home court advantage, 3.7 more than he's logged over the course of the season at home.
The matchup vs. Dallas is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Dallas Mavericks are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PGs have totaled the 9th-most threes per game in the league this year (2.4).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing at home.
The New Orleans Pelicans are expected to see a rise in opportunities today from facing the 3rd-speediest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Mavericks).
The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

With respect to three-point shots, the New Orleans Pelicans's feeble 10.5 sunk threes per game as the home team measures as the weakest in the league this year.
The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a lowly 2.9 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the NBA).

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