Zion Williamson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/11/2026

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Zion Williamson

NBA · Player Props

Zion Williamson

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat · Feb 11, 2026

Updated Feb 12, 2026 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Zion Williamson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Zion Williamson has posted 25.3 points per game over the last 12 games playing at home, 4.5 higher than he's posted overall this year at home.
This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 43.4% on 3-pointers (2nd-best in the NBA) vs. the Heat, identifying this as a positive matchup.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games on their home court.
The New Orleans Pelicans are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from facing the most up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year (the Miami Heat).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the New Orleans Pelicans grade out best in in the NBA as the home team with 14.4 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the lowest scoring offense in the NBA with the home court advantage this year in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc.
The matchup vs. the Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted just 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the league).

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