Zion Williamson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/4/2026

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Zion Williamson

NBA · Player Props

Zion Williamson

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 4, 2026

Updated Jan 5, 2026 2:14 AM UTC

Analysis

Zion Williamson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Zion Williamson has tallied 28.0 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.7 higher than he's tallied over the course of the season.
The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a favorable one for shots from the field; the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled the 7th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (12.2).
The Pelicans have played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games.
The Pelicans are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from facing the quickest pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Miami Heat).
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA as the road team this year.

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