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Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson Points
Player Prop - 3/22/2024

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Zion Williamson has put up 28.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.5 more than he's put up in all games this season.

Among all players in the league, Zion Williamson rates in the 82nd percentile for playing time, logging a massive 31.0 minutes per game this year.

As it relates to shooting, the Pelicans's fantastic 117.7 points per game as the road team places 7th-highest in the league over the last 25 games.

The matchup vs. Miami is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Miami Heat are at home, opposing starting PFs have put up the highest three percentage in the NBA this year (46.4%).

Compared to last season's 2.5 rate, Zion Williamson's off-target foul shot attempts have regressed this season to 2.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Zion Williamson has committed 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (80th percentile).

The Pelicans have played at the 6th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games as the road team.

The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league this year, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Pelicans.

The Pelicans have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Heat, making it tough to get to the foul line.

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