Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 3:28 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has attempted 1.6 3-pointers per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 0.3 rate last year.
Xavier Tillman has played 26.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 4.8 higher than he's played in all games this year at home.
As it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the most aggressive team in the NBA when playing at home over the last 5 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Grizzlies.
The Kings have given up the least offensive boards per game (9.3) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 59.9% mark, Xavier Tillman's shooting performance has regressed this season to 36.6%.
This matchup is a positive one for scoring; their opposition has put up the 10th-highest FG% in the NBA this year (48.6%).
The showdown with Domantas Sabonis slots into the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs notching a mere 10.7 points per game this year when they are playing at home.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Memphis Grizzlies grade out 8thworst in in the NBA with just 10.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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