Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 1/24/2024

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies · Jan 24, 2024

Updated Jan 25, 2024 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has attempted 9.6 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 3.2 more than he's attempted overall this year.
Xavier Tillman has played 29.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 9.2 higher than he's played in all games this season.
The 10th-fastest pace road team in the league this year has been the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, their opposition has snagged 9.6 offensive boards per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise bring about added chances for offense).

Favors Under

The Grizzlies rank as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
This matchup is a favorable one for shot attempts from downtown; opposing squads have totaled the 4th-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA over the last 15 games (38.5).
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA this year, which should decrease plays for the Grizzlies.
Xavier Tillman has made just 40.1% of his foul shots this season, a significant dropoff from his 54.4 mark last season.
Xavier Tillman will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lower stat production in all stat categories.

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