Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 1/15/2024

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors · Jan 15, 2024

Updated Jan 16, 2024 2:28 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Away from home, the Golden State Warriors have given up the 6th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.8) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Kevon Looney has been quite high (4.6 foul shot attempts per game) when squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
Xavier Tillman will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally improves player production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 59.9% rate, Xavier Tillman's shooting prowess has been reduced this season to 37.0%.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the lowest scoring offense in the league at home this year.
The matchup vs. Kevon Looney is a difficult one for shots from the field; when Looney is on the visiting team and guarding opposing starting Cs this year, they have made just 50.1% of their shots from the field (3rd percentile).
The 4th-most lethargic pace home team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Golden State Warriors have played at the 8th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Memphis Grizzlies.

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