Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 1/13/2024

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs New York Knicks · Jan 13, 2024

Updated Jan 14, 2024 3:53 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has attempted 1.7 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 0.3 mark last year.
The New York Knicks have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, which should increase plays for the Memphis Grizzlies.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and bring about additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies grade out 3rdbest in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
This year when they are playing at home, their opposition has grabbed 9.5 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-lowest in the NBA) against the Knicks (diminishing possessions that could otherwise create additional opportunities for offense).
Xavier Tillman figures to get a boost in productivity in all stat categories on account of controlling the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

The Grizzlies check in as the lowest scoring offense in the league while at home this year.
This matchup is a favorable one for field goals; opposing teams have compiled the 6th-highest FG% in the league over the last 20 games when the Knicks are on the road (48.9%).
The faceoff with Isaiah Hartenstein ranks in the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs burying only 5.2 shots per game this year.
The Grizzlies have played at the 5th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 15 games while playing at home.
Relative to last season's 54.4% rate, Xavier Tillman's foul-shot proficiency has fallen this season to 40.1%.

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