Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 12/21/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers · Dec 21, 2023

Updated Dec 22, 2023 12:55 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-132/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has sunk 50.0% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games, 13.3% more than he's made from 3-point range overall this season.
As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 5th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Indiana Pacers have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should boost opportunities for the Grizzlies.
While playing away from home, the Pacers have given up the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.1) in the league to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Xavier Tillman will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home stadium tends to increase player performance in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Xavier Tillman has sunk a measly 35.2% of his field goal attempts this season, significantly lower than his 59.9 mark last season.
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing clubs have totaled 132.5 points per game (most in the NBA) against the Pacers, labeling this as a positive matchup for offensive productivity.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games while at home.
The Grizzlies have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, opposing squads have attempted 27.8 free throws per game (highest in the league) vs. the Pacers, finding it easy to get to the foul line.