Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 4/7/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies · Apr 7, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has successfully made 5.2 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.1 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.
Xavier Tillman has tallied 28.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 9.1 more than he's tallied over the course of the season.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 3rd-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage.
The Bucks have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games, which should boost plays for the Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Xavier Tillman has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games when playing away from home, 1.0 higher than he's accumulated overall this year on the road.
The matchup vs. the Bucks is a tough one for scoring; the opposition's starting Cs have compiled the 15th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (52.4%).
The Bucks have given up the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.9) in the NBA to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
Xavier Tillman has converted just 54.8% of his foul shots this year, a significant dropoff from his 72.4 rate last year.
The matchup against the Bucks is a challenging one for drawing fouls; opposing starting Cs have attempted a measly 2.7 foul shots per game this year (14th-least in the league).