Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 3/29/2023

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Clippers · Mar 29, 2023

Updated Mar 30, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has converted 68.4% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games, 7.2% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year.
Xavier Tillman has tallied 26.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 8.3 more than he's tallied overall this year.
The matchup vs. Los Angeles is a good one; when the Clippers are away from home, they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting Cs this year (16.0).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games at home.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Clippers have played at the 7th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Grizzlies.
The Clippers have given up the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
Xavier Tillman has converted 56.4% of his free throws this year, putting him in the 8th percentile among all players in the league.

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