Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 3/28/2023

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Orlando Magic · Mar 28, 2023

Updated Mar 29, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has successfully made 67.2% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 6.5% higher than he's converted over the course of the season.
Xavier Tillman has been on the court for 26.5 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 8.4 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season.
The matchup vs. Orlando is a good one; when the Magic are the visiting team, they have given up the 27th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting Cs over the last 15 games (18.2).
The Magic have played at the 5th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should increase plays for the Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 9th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.
The Magic have allowed the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.8) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
Xavier Tillman has made 56.4% of his foul shots this year, placing him in the 8th percentile among all players in the league.
The matchup against the Magic is a tough one for drawing fouls; opposing starting Cs have attempted just 3.0 foul shots per game this year (12th-least in the NBA).

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