Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2023

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 3, 2023

Updated Mar 4, 2023 3:21 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has converted 84.1% of his field goals over the last 10 games on the road, 23.3% more than he's made over the course of the season while playing away from home.
Xavier Tillman has sunk 100.0% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games, 77.9% higher than he's made from three in all games this season.
The matchup vs. Denver is a favorable one for scoring; when the Nuggets have the home court advantage, opposing starting Cs have put up the 29th-highest field goal rate in the NBA this year (63.8%).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Grizzlies.

Favors Under

Xavier Tillman has been on the court for 13.1 minutes per game this year, some of the lowest playing time of any player in the league: 24th percentile.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 8th-lowest scoring offense in the league away from their home court this year in terms of three-pointers.
The matchup vs. Denver may be a tough one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a mere 1.9 free throws per game over the last 20 games when the Nuggets are playing at home (14th-least in the NBA).
Xavier Tillman will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road usually lowers player performance across the board.

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