Xavier Tillman Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 3/15/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Made 3 Point Shots

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 15, 2023

Updated Mar 16, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+625/-1000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has made 100.0% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games, 77.9% higher than he's made from downtown overall this year.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for attempts from beyond the arc; the opposing team's starting Cs have averaged the 21st-most three attempts per game in the NBA over the last 10 games (1.7).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Xavier Tillman has averaged 13.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the least-used players in the league: 24th percentile.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 8th-lowest scoring offense in the league away from their home court this year when it comes to threes.
The matchup vs. Bam Adebayo is a difficult one for treys; when guarding opposing starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a mere 23.0% of their 3-pointers (7th percentile).
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Grizzlies.
Xavier Tillman will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage generally lowers stat production for all stats.