Xavier Tillman Assists - Player Prop Bet 1/24/2024

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Assists

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies · Jan 24, 2024

Updated Jan 25, 2024 12:44 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-151/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -179 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has tallied 3.6 assists per game over the last 5 games, 1.9 more than he's tallied overall this season.
Xavier Tillman has played 29.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 9.2 higher than he's played in all games this season.
The 10th-fastest pace road team in the league this year has been the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, their opposition has snagged 9.6 offensive boards per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise bring about added chances for offense).

Favors Under

The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA this year, which should decrease plays for the Grizzlies.
Xavier Tillman will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lower stat production in all stat categories.

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