Walker Kessler Points - Player Prop Bet 11/4/2023

NBA · Player Props

Walker Kessler

C · Utah Jazz

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Utah Jazz · Nov 4, 2023

Updated Nov 4, 2023 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Walker Kessler Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+106/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Walker Kessler has made 69.8% of his shot attempts from the field away from his home court since the start of last season, putting him in the 98th percentile out of all players in the league.
The matchup vs. Minnesota is a strong one for 3-point shots; when the Timberwolves are on their home court, the opposition's starting Cs have averaged the 30th-most 3-pointers per game in the league since the start of last season (0.8).
The Jazz have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league this year.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Utah Jazz rank 12thbest in in the NBA while at home with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Timberwolves have allowed the 5th-most offensive boards per game (11.1) in the NBA to opposing clubs since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Walker Kessler has made 51.3% of his free throws with the home court advantage since the start of last season, placing him in the 4th percentile out of all players in the league.
As a team, the Jazz have been poor at getting to the charity stripe while at home: 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season, drawing a lowly 20.9 free throws per game.
This matchup is a good one for getting to the foul line; when the Minnesota Timberwolves are playing at home, the other team has attempted a massive 25.2 foul shots per game since the start of last season (6th-most in the league).
Walker Kessler will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens player performance in all stat categories.