Vince Williams Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/24/2024

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Vince Williams Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Vince Williams Jr.

G · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies · Jan 24, 2024

Updated Jan 25, 2024 12:44 AM EST

Analysis

Vince Williams Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Vince Williams Jr. has made 2.4 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.9 more than he's made from 3-point range in all games this season while on the road.
Vince Williams Jr. has tallied 34.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 10.7 higher than he's tallied over the course of the season.
This year, opposing starting SFs have totaled 12.2 shot attempts per game (24th-highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, creating a good matchup.
The 10th-fastest pace road team in the league this year has been the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Vince Williams Jr. lands in the 78th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a whopping 2.3 fouls per game this year.
The Grizzlies rank as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
Over the last 20 games when they are the visiting team, opposing clubs have shot 37.4% on three-pointers (3rd-best in the NBA) against the Heat, marking this as a good matchup.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA this year, which should decrease plays for the Grizzlies.
Vince Williams Jr. should suffer a drop-off in production in all stat categories as a result of playing away from home in this contest.

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