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Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro Points
Player Prop - 2/13/2025

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Tyler Herro has scored 23.5 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the league by this metric: 94th percentile.

Tyler Herro has attempted 9.7 3-pointers per game this season, a significant increase from his 8.1 mark last season.

Tyler Herro has tallied 35.5 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 96th percentile.

In regard to shots from downtown, the Heat's outstanding 14.0 drained threes per game while on the road comes in as the 7th-highest in the NBA this year.

This year when they are on the road, opposing starting SGs have tallied 2.8 3-pointers per game (3rd-highest in the league) against the Dallas Mavericks, branding this as a strong matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.

The Mavericks have played at the 8th-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games with the home court advantage, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Heat.

The Miami Heat rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (6th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, struggling to get to the free-throw line.

Tyler Herro will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city usually reduces player production for all stats.

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