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Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro Points
Player Prop - 2/4/2025

Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Tyler Herro has made a terrific 3.8 three-point shots per game this year, significantly more than his 3.2 rate last year.

Tyler Herro has averaged 35.5 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 95th percentile.

With respect to three-point shots, the Miami Heat's exceptional 14.2 converted threes per game places 6th-highest in the league this year.

The Heat will likely see a rise in plays in this contest from being pitted against the 2nd-fastest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Chicago Bulls).

Tyler Herro has sunk 5.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.4 higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season away from his home court.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This year, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 13.7 points per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Chicago Bulls, designating this as a challenging matchup for offensive effectiveness.

The 3rd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Miami Heat.

The Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PGs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Bulls, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

Tyler Herro will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to worsen stat production across the board.

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