Tyler Herro Points - Player Prop Bet 4/14/2024

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Tyler Herro

NBA · Player Props

Tyler Herro

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors · Apr 14, 2024

Updated Apr 14, 2024 4:31 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tyler Herro has made 3.2 treys per game this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Tyler Herro has tallied 33.6 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 91st percentile.
The Miami Heat check in as the 6th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home as it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc.
The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 25 games (the Toronto Raptors).
Tyler Herro has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games at home, 20.8% higher than he's sunk in all games this year while on his home court.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Toronto is a difficult one for 3-pointers; when the Raptors are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PGs have put up the lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (23.6%).
The Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA this year.
The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 3.7 foul shots per game (5th-fewest in the league) against the Toronto Raptors, struggling to draw fouls.

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