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Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro Points
Player Prop - 4/1/2023

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Tyler Herro has attempted 8.1 threes per game this year, a big improvement over his 6.3 rate last year.

Tyler Herro has played 34.5 minutes per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.

The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.

The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a positive one; they have given up the 22nd-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs over the last 25 games (16.0).

Tyler Herro has sunk 3.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.0 higher than he's sunk overall this year playing at home.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Tyler Herro has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.2 more than he's committed over the course of the year at home.

The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The Mavericks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA without the home court advantage this year, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat.

The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

While playing on the road, the Mavericks have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (13.8) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

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