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Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro Points
Player Prop - 3/28/2023

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Tyler Herro has converted an impressive 3.1 three-pointers per game this year, a big improvement over his 2.4 rate last year.

Tyler Herro has been on the court for 34.7 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 95th percentile.

The Miami Heat have been the 9th-most aggressive offense in the league when playing on the road this year in terms of 3-point attempts.

The matchup against the Raptors is a positive one for three-pointers; the other team's starting SGs have compiled the 24th-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (38.2%).

The Raptors have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Tyler Herro has been called for 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.2 higher than he's been called for over the course of the year.

The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 20 games.

The Raptors have played at the 6th-slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Heat.

The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the Raptors may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SGs have attempted a mere 2.2 free throws per game over the last 15 games (15th-least in the NBA).

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