Ty Jerome Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2023

NBA · Player Props

Ty Jerome

G-F · Golden State Warriors

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers · Feb 28, 2023

Updated Mar 1, 2023 12:03 AM EST

Analysis

Ty Jerome Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-127/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ty Jerome has successfully made 40.8% of his 3-point shots while at home since the start of last season, placing him in the 89th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Ty Jerome has attempted 5.6 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 higher than he's attempted overall this season.
The Golden State Warriors have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 7 games playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Trail Blazers have given up the 10th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.8) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Ty Jerome will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage usually boosts player performance across the board.

Favors Under

This matchup is a strong one for three-pointers; opposing squads have shot for the 2nd-highest three percentage in the league this year (37.0%).
The Golden State Warriors have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 10th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to decrease possessions for the Warriors.
As a team, the Golden State Warriors have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls of late: worst in the NBA over the last 15 games, averaging a mere 17.5 foul shots per game.
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the free throw line; opposing teams have attempted a colossal 30.5 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (most in the NBA).