Trey Lyles Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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Trey Lyles

NBA · Player Props

Trey Lyles

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Trey Lyles Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trey Lyles has sunk 50.8% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 10 games at home, 15.0% higher than he's converted from downtown overall this year while at home.
The 9th-quickest pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Kings.
The Kings will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-speediest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the San Antonio Spurs).
The Kings have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games when they are playing at home, opposing squads have come down with 9.5 offensive rebounds per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the San Antonio Spurs (minimizing possessions that could otherwise bring about additional opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Trey Lyles has averaged 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's averaged in all games this season.
This matchup is a positive one for three-point shots; when the Spurs are away from home, opposing clubs have put up the 2nd-highest three percentage in the NBA against them this year (39.6%).
In terms of getting to the charity stripe, the Kings's subpar 15.8 foul shots per game measures as the 3rd-worst in the NBA over the last 5 games.

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