Trey Lyles Points - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2024

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Trey Lyles

NBA · Player Props

Trey Lyles

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Chicago Bulls · Mar 4, 2024

Updated Mar 5, 2024 3:03 AM EST

Analysis

Trey Lyles Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trey Lyles has converted 51.7% of his shots from downtown over the last 10 games at home, 14.8% more than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this season when playing at home.
The Kings rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Bulls have allowed the 2nd-least offensive boards per game (8.4) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Trey Lyles will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home city generally boosts player performance in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Trey Lyles has tallied 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year.
This matchup is a good one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the other team has totaled the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (39.6).
The 9th-most sluggish tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Sacramento Kings.
The Chicago Bulls have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA without the home court advantage this year, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Sacramento Kings.
As it relates to getting to the foul line, the Sacramento Kings's unimpressive 19.7 free throw attempts per game rates 5th-worst in the NBA over the last 25 games.

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