Trey Lyles Points - Player Prop Bet 3/1/2024

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Trey Lyles

NBA · Player Props

Trey Lyles

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento Kings · Mar 1, 2024

Updated Mar 2, 2024 1:28 AM EST

Analysis

Trey Lyles Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-102/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves is a hard one; they have allowed the least points per game in the league to the other team this year (106.3).
The 10th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Kings.
The Sacramento Kings rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the road team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
This year, their opposition has attempted 21.9 foul shots per game (9th-fewest in the NBA) against the Timberwolves, making it tough to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Trey Lyles lands in the 76th percentile for technical fouls, putting up a whopping 0.0 fouls per game away from his home court this year.
When it comes to three-point shots, the Sacramento Kings's poor 33.9% rate of made threes without the home court advantage ranks 5th-fewest in the league over the last 5 games.
The Timberwolves have played at the 4th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should lead to fewer plays for the Kings.
Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, opposing teams have nabbed 12.2 offensive boards per game (6th-most in the league) against the Timberwolves (continuing possessions that can bring about bonus opportunities for offense).
Trey Lyles will likely suffer a reduction in productivity for all stats considering playing away from home in this matchup.

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