Tobias Harris Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2024

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Tobias Harris

NBA · Player Props

Tobias Harris

F · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat · Nov 12, 2024

Updated Nov 12, 2024 11:59 PM EST

Analysis

Tobias Harris Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -2500 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tobias Harris has sunk 56.1% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 8.7% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.
Tobias Harris has tallied 31.5 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
This year, opposing starting PFs have shot 43.4% on 3-pointers (2nd-best in the league) against the Miami Heat, branding this as a favorable matchup.
The Detroit Pistons have played at the 10th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Detroit Pistons rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Tobias Harris has been called for 2.8 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 81st percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
When it comes to scoring, the Pistons's poor 107.1 points per game ranks 5th-worst in the league this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the 5th-least up-tempo tempo in the league this year, which should decrease possessions for the Detroit Pistons.
Tobias Harris has failed to make 1.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 more than he's missed in all games this season.
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 free throws per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

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