Tobias Harris Points - Player Prop Bet 12/20/2023

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Tobias Harris

NBA · Player Props

Tobias Harris

F · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 20, 2023

Updated Dec 21, 2023 12:23 AM EST

Analysis

Tobias Harris Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tobias Harris has made 55.3% of his three-pointers over the last 5 games, 22.0% higher than he's converted from 3-point range overall this year.
Out of all players in the league, Tobias Harris slots into the 89th percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 33.7 minutes per game this year.
The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games.
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Philadelphia 76ers rank 10thbest in in the NBA when playing at home with 12.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have given up the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (8.8) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 4.3 rate, Tobias Harris's three-point attempts have fallen this year to 3.0 per game.
With respect to 3-point attempts, the 10th-least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Philadelphia 76ers.
The matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves is a hard one; they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PFs this year (14.5).
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should lead to decreased plays for the Philadelphia 76ers.

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