T.J. Warren Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

T.J. Warren

F · Phoenix Suns

Points

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs · Apr 4, 2023

Updated Apr 5, 2023 2:16 AM EST

Analysis

T.J. Warren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against the Spurs is a difficult one for 3-point attempts; the other team have totaled the 3rd-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (32.0).
The Spurs have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to more opportunities for the Suns.
The Phoenix Suns check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
T.J. Warren has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 25.3% more than he's sunk overall this year.
T.J. Warren will hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home stadium generally increases stat production across the board.

Favors Under

T.J. Warren has made 29.2% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, -8.9% lower than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season on his home court.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Spurs have allowed the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the league to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls: 3rd-worst in the league this year, tallying a lowly 21.7 free throws per game.
This matchup may be a good one for getting to the free throw line; when the Spurs are away from home, opposing clubs have attempted a monstrous 26.8 free throws per game over the last 25 games (2nd-most in the league).