Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 1/11/2025

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Terry Rozier

NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Miami Heat · Jan 11, 2025

Updated Jan 12, 2025 1:49 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Heat rank as the 9th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.
This year, opposing starting SGs have shot 51.5% on shots from the field (best in the league) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, labeling this as a strong matchup.
Terry Rozier has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.2% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.
Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 3.2 free throws per game (8th-most in the NBA) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

Favors Under

In comparison to last year's 2.4 rate, Terry Rozier's threes scored have regressed this year to 1.6 per game.
The 3rd-most lethargic pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 10th-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Heat.
The Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Terry Rozier will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city tends to decrease stat production in all stat categories.

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