Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2024

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Terry Rozier

NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat · Nov 12, 2024

Updated Nov 13, 2024 12:04 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+112/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier comes in at the 76th percentile for 3-point shots hit when playing away from home, registering 1.8 per game this year.
Terry Rozier has averaged 32.4 minutes per game on the road this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 10th-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Pistons).
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Heat grade out 4th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 4.8 free throws per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Detroit Pistons, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

In comparison to last year's 19.8 rate, Terry Rozier's points per game have fallen this year to 14.3.
The Heat check in as the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The matchup against the Pistons is a tough one for three-point shots; the other team's starting SGs have posted the 2nd-lowest three rate in the league this year (27.6%).
The Heat have played at the 5th-slowest pace in the league this year.
Terry Rozier will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to lower player production for all stats.

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