Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 4/5/2024

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Terry Rozier

NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat · Apr 5, 2024

Updated Apr 6, 2024 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Terry Rozier has converted 5.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 2.7 higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier lands in the 91st percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 33.8 minutes per game this year.
When it comes to 3-point attempts, the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Heat.
The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should boost opportunities for the Heat.
Terry Rozier has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 10.9% more than he's converted over the course of the season.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Houston is a challenging one; when the Rockets have the home court advantage, they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the league to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (12.8).
The most sluggish tempo road team in the league this year has been the Heat.
The Miami Heat check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PGs have attempted 1.7 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) against the Rockets, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.
Terry Rozier is expected to suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories on account of being on the road in this contest.

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