Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 3/22/2024

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Terry Rozier

NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans · Mar 22, 2024

Updated Mar 23, 2024 2:50 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier rates in the 83rd percentile for playing time, averaging a massive 31.6 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
In regard to shots from downtown, the Miami Heat's impressive 38.3% rate of made threes while on their home court ranks 6th-strongest in the NBA this year.
The matchup against the Pelicans is a strong one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the 3rd-most three attempts per game in the league this year (7.1).
This year, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 4.1 foul shots per game (8th-most in the NBA) vs. the Pelicans, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.
Terry Rozier is expected to see a spike in productivity in all facets of the game considering enjoying the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Terry Rozier has attempted a mere 16.6 shots per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 18.9 mark last year.
In comparison to last season's 8.0 clip, Terry Rozier's 3-point attempts have dropped this season to 6.6 per game.
The Heat have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the NBA this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games while traveling, which should lead to fewer plays for the Heat.
The Heat have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

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