Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier slots into the 92nd percentile for shots taken, averaging 16.6 per game this year.
Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier slots into the 94th percentile for 3-point attempts, tallying 6.8 per game this year.
Terry Rozier has tallied 33.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 91st percentile.
With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's impressive 37.6% rate of made threes measures as the 7th-highest in the NBA this year.
The Miami Heat are expected to see a rise in plays today from facing the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Mavericks).

Favors Under

This year when they are the visiting team, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied 4.6 three attempts per game (12th-lowest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, making this a hard matchup.
The slowest pace-of-play visiting offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Miami Heat.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about further chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 3rdworst in in the NBA away from their home court with only 9.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
When playing at home, the Mavericks have given up the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (11.7) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Mavericks may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PGs have attempted a measly 2.9 free throws per game over the last 20 games (13th-least in the league).