Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2024

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Terry Rozier

NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons · Mar 5, 2024

Updated Mar 6, 2024 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier ranks in the 81st percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 31.0 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
The Heat have been the 5th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA when playing at home this year.
The Miami Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from facing the 5th-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Pistons).
The matchup against Detroit is a good one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PGs have attempted a monstrous 5.7 foul shots per game this year when the Detroit Pistons are away from home (29th-most in the league).
Terry Rozier is expected to see an increase in output in all stat categories as a result of owning the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

Terry Rozier has attempted a mere 16.6 field goals per game this season, quite a bit lower than his 18.9 mark last season.
Compared to last season's 8.0 clip, Terry Rozier's shot attempts from downtown have decreased this season to 6.8 per game.
The matchup vs. Detroit is a tough one for shots from the field; when the Pistons are on the road, the other team's starting PGs have shot for the 14th-lowest Field Goal% in the NBA this year (37.4%).
The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league this year.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 6thworst in in the NBA with only 9.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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