Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 2/6/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic · Feb 6, 2024

Updated Feb 7, 2024 4:06 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Terry Rozier has shot and missed 4.7 attempts from downtown per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 5.4 mark last season.
Terry Rozier has averaged 32.1 minutes per game while on his home court this year, placing him in the 85th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
In regard to 3-pointers, the Miami Heat's excellent 39.6% rate of converted threes at home rates 2nd-strongest in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Orlando Magic have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (6.2) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Terry Rozier stands to see a spike in performance across the board as a result of having the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Terry Rozier has made 33.6% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, 5.6% lower than he's put through the hoop in all games this season while playing at home.
The matchup vs. Orlando is a challenging one for three-point attempts; when the Orlando Magic are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied the 13th-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.9).
The 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Heat.
The Orlando Magic have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Heat.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 6thworst in in the league with just 9.7 offensive rebounds per game this year.