Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 1/31/2024

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Terry Rozier

NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 31, 2024

Updated Feb 1, 2024 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Terry Rozier has shot and missed 9.6 field goals per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 11.0 mark last year.
Compared to last season's 5.4 clip, Terry Rozier's unsuccessful 3-pointers have regressed this season to 4.7 per game.
Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier lands in the 82nd percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 31.4 minutes per game while playing at home this year.
The Miami Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games at home.
This year, the other team has collected 9.3 offensive boards per game (fewest in the league) against the Sacramento Kings (lessening possessions that could otherwise lead to additional chances for offense).

Favors Under

This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting PGs have compiled 15.2 points per game (13th-fewest in the league) against the Sacramento Kings, marking this as a hard matchup for offensive production.
The most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Heat.
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 6thworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.
The matchup against Sacramento is a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a lowly 3.3 free throws per game this year when the Kings are on the road (8th-least in the league).

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