Stephon Castle Points - Player Prop Bet 1/19/2025

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Stephon Castle

NBA · Player Props

Stephon Castle

G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 19, 2025

Updated Jan 19, 2025 8:24 AM EST

Analysis

Stephon Castle Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-115/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Stephon Castle has attempted 13.8 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 3.4 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.
The matchup against the Heat is a strong one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.3).
The Spurs check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
Stephon Castle has attempted 4.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
This year when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 3.4 foul shots per game (9th-most in the league) against the Miami Heat, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Stephon Castle places in the 21st percentile for 3-point prowess on the road with a weak 23.7% rate this year.
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA away from their home court this year.
The Spurs are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from competing against the 4th-least up-tempo pace home offense in the league this year (the Heat).
Stephon Castle figures to suffer a drop-off in production in all facets of the game as a result of being on the road in this matchup.

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