Stephon Castle Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2025

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Stephon Castle

NBA · Player Props

Stephon Castle

G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 3, 2025

Updated Jan 4, 2025 1:49 AM EST

Analysis

Stephon Castle Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Spurs check in as the 6th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc.
The matchup against Denver is a strong one; when the Nuggets are on their home court, they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting SGs over the last 5 games (20.4).
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games, which should boost possessions for the Spurs.
Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 5.0 foul shots per game (2nd-most in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Stephon Castle rates in the 12th percentile for shooting efficiency with a lackluster 36.1% rate this year.
Stephon Castle has converted 23.3% of his 3-point shots when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 19th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Stephon Castle should experience a decrease in productivity for all stats considering playing away from home in this contest.

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