Shake Milton Points - Player Prop Bet 11/24/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Shake Milton

G-F · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento Kings · Nov 24, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 11:53 PM EST

Analysis

Shake Milton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Shake Milton has averaged 1.0 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the least-whistled players in the NBA (16th percentile).
In terms of offense, the Minnesota Timberwolves's excellent 116.1 points per game comes in as the 8th-most in the league over the last 10 games.
The Timberwolves will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from facing the 4th-speediest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Sacramento Kings).
While on their home court, the Sacramento Kings have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Shake Milton has sunk 95.8% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 15.3% more than he's made over the course of the year.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Shake Milton comes in at the 9th percentile for field goal proficiency with the home court advantage with a an unimpressive 33.7% rate this year.
Shake Milton has played 15.4 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking in the 19th percentile -- putting him among the least-utilized plays in the league.
This year when they are on their home court, opposing clubs have averaged 49.1% on shots from the field (7th-highest in the league) vs. the Kings, making this a strong matchup.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team has attempted a massive 25.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games (8th-most in the league).