Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points - Player Prop Bet 5/7/2024

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

NBA · Player Props

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · May 7, 2024

Updated May 8, 2024 1:41 AM EST

Analysis

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has registered 29.9 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league in this category: 99th percentile.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has converted 54.1% of his shot attempts from the field while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among all players in the NBA.
Out of all players in the league, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander measures in the 91st percentile for playing time, registering a massive 33.8 minutes per game while playing at home this year.
In terms of shooting, the Thunder's stellar 122.5 points per game when playing at home settles in as the 2nd-strongest in the league this year.
This year, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 6.1 three attempts per game (5th-highest in the league) against the Mavericks, labeling this as a strong matchup.

Favors Under

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has attempted just 8.6 free throws per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 10.8 rate last year.
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (6th-lowest in the league) against the Mavericks, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

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