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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-122/-106).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -122.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has successfully made 58.2% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games, 16.6% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this year.Among all players in the NBA, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks in the 92nd percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 34.5 minutes per game while playing at home this year.The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.This year, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 6.3 3-point attempts per game (30th-most in the league) vs. the Heat, marking this as a strong matchup.The Thunder have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Among all players in the NBA, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rates in the 85th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a massive 2.5 fouls per game at home this year.The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games on the road, which ought to reduce plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.Offensive rebounds continue possession and create more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 1stworst in in the NBA as the home team with just 8.5 offensive boards per game this year.Relative to last year's 9.8 clip, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's foul shots made have fallen this year to 7.9 per game.The matchup against Miami may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Miami Heat are the visiting team (27th-least in the league).
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