Scottie Barnes Points - Player Prop Bet 2/21/2025

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Scottie Barnes

NBA · Player Props

Scottie Barnes

F · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat · Feb 21, 2025

Updated Feb 22, 2025 2:34 AM EST

Analysis

Scottie Barnes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Scottie Barnes has attempted 16.0 shots per game at home this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among all players in the league.
Among all players in the NBA, Scottie Barnes slots into the 91st percentile for playing time, averaging a monstrous 34.0 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have shot 43.4% on threes (2nd-highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, identifying this as a good matchup.
Offensive rebounds save possession and spark bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Raptors grade out 9th-best in in the NBA with 11.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Scottie Barnes has attempted 4.3 foul shots per game with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 90th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Scottie Barnes lands in the 78th percentile (high is bad, in this case) for bricked three-point shots playing at home, posting a massive 3.3 per game this year.
The Raptors have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
The 7th-most lethargic pace home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Toronto Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors will likely see a decline in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest tempo team in the league over the last 10 games (the Heat).
The matchup vs. the Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PFs have attempted a mere 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the league).

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