Scottie Barnes Points - Player Prop Bet 3/6/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Scottie Barnes

F · Toronto Raptors

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 6, 2023

Updated Mar 6, 2023 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Scottie Barnes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-108/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Scottie Barnes has converted 54.6% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games on the road, 5.7% higher than he's made overall this season while on the road.
Scottie Barnes has played 34.8 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 96th percentile.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should lead to more opportunities for the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
While at home, the Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Scottie Barnes has been called for 2.5 personal fouls per game while on the road this year, putting him in the 85th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The Toronto Raptors have been the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 20 games on the road.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a hard one; they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SGs since the start of last season (14.2).
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup against the Nuggets is a hard one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted a measly 2.2 foul shots per game since the start of last season (15th-least in the league).