Santi Aldama Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 1/22/2024

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Rebounds

Toronto Raptors vs Memphis Grizzlies · Jan 22, 2024

Updated Jan 23, 2024 12:32 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-142/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has posted 5.6 rebounds per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league by this metric: 85th percentile.
The 9th-speediest tempo road offense in the NBA this year has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to see a spike in possessions today from competing against the 10th-fastest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Raptors).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Grizzlies grade out 7thbest in in the league with 11.6 offensive boards per game over the last 7 games.
This year, the other team has captured 10.2 offensive rebounds per game (6th-fewest in the league) against the Raptors (lessening possessions that could otherwise produce extra opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has been called for 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the league when it comes to technicals (80th percentile).
Santi Aldama will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road generally reduces player performance in all facets of the game.

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