Santi Aldama Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2024

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Rebounds

Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors · Jan 3, 2024

Updated Jan 4, 2024 12:54 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has averaged 4.2 defensive rebounds per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this standard: 85th percentile.
The 7th-fastest pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Grizzlies.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 8th-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to more plays for the Grizzlies.
Over the last 25 games, opposing clubs have secured 9.7 offensive boards per game (5th-lowest in the league) against the Toronto Raptors (diminishing possessions that could otherwise generate bonus chances for offense).
Santi Aldama is expected to see a rise in productivity for all stats as a result of owning the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

The Memphis Grizzlies have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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